Invest 92-L: I continue to closely watch the progress of Invest 92-L, which is a strong tropical wave that is located near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning. Heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding and mudslides, along with strong gusty winds are expected this weekend across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti as Invest 92-L tracks to the south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. All indications are that this system is headed to the Gulf of Mexico and I am sticking my neck way out and am going to say that I think there is a pretty good chance that Invest 92-L will end up becoming Tropical Storm Alex in the northwest Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico as early as Thursday or Friday. Why do I feel so strongly about this?? Well let me explain:
As I have already mentioned, this disturbance is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by around Thursday. Just about all of the model guidance members have been consistent on developing this into a tropical cyclone by the end of the week. The European model, in particular, has been extremely consistent and insists that the energy from 92-L will combine with instability and convection along the north coast of South America and pop a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean on Thursday, which ends up tracking northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico and intensifying by next Monday (June 28th). The GFS model, on the other hand, forecasts that Invest 92-L will develop into a tropical cyclone in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday and then tracks it slowly northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico late next week into next weekend. The Canadian model also forecasts development in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasts it to come ashore along the Texas coast next weekend.
I do believe that 92-L will track just south of Hispaniola and then track into the northwestern Caribbean near central and western Cuba. A couple of things to note, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable next week in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Also, real-time analysis shows that the wind shear is lifting out across the Caribbean. Based on this, I think Invest 92-L will eventually develop into Tropical Storm Alex as early as Wednesday. One other clue that supports my idea is that the Madden-Julian Oscillation upward motion pulse is about to move into the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, just in time to meet Invest 92-L.
Needless to say, I will be monitoring Invest 92-L very closely over the next several days. I will be posting additional updates throughout the weekend to keep you all updated.
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