The reports of Gov. Deval Patrick’s (D-MA) demise have been greatly exaggerated.
As mentioned several weeks ago, Gov. Patrick will benefit from a three-way race. But even now, as a true three-way contest looks to be headed South, Gov. Patrick’s lead has only strengthened in the most recent poll.
The biggest loser this time around was former Democrat, and now shameless Tea Party Panderer, State Treasurer Tim Cahill, who was absolutely clobbered by Republican Party Hack, Former MA Health Secretary Charlie Baker in a recent ad campaign.
Baker essentially called Cahill out for the ideological fraud that he is, and people are starting to realize that Cahill is, indeed, a Democratic Party Hack dressed up in Tea Party clothing.
But the support didn’t flock over to Baker. It would seem his ad campaign was successful, but had an unintended affect. Instead of supporting Baker, Cahill supporters have exclusively hopped on the Patrick Re-election Bandwagon, putting Baker even further behind.
The Republican-slanted Rasmussen (the official poll of FoxNews!) conducted the most recent poll of the Massachusetts Governor’s race. This story isn’t making National news, but it probably should, since outlets like MSNBC still claim “unpopular Governor” as the second-most likely reason Sen. Scott Brown won in January (The first of course, being “voter anger”). In fact, Gov. Patrick has been left for dead for so long (literally months after he took office in 2007), that this recent resurrection is about as unlikely as it gets.
In a three-way race (there hasn’t been a poll done with Jill Stein included yet, but Grace Ross got a whopping 2% of the vote in 2006 for the Green-Rainbow Party, and there’s no reason to think Dr. Stein would garner much more than that), Gov. Patrick stands at 45%, which is a 10-point surge from a Rasmussen poll a month ago.
Sec. Baker got 31% support, up four points from a month ago; and Treas. Cahill brings up the rear at 14%, down nine points from the last poll. Those who are undecided (and to be fair, there are still six months to go, so you can’t kill them too badly yet), dropped from 15% to just 10%. This early in the process, that’s a lot of people who have made up their minds already.
That means we’re all in for a lot of ugly ads and debates as election season kicks into gear, with everyone looking for that “gotcha” moment.
In those types of races, the place to be is usually in the lead, and with a 14-point lead; the first time he’s polled above 35% by the way, Gov. Patrick is in the catbird’s seat for re-election.
When that happens, not only with the National media have to find something else besides “voter anger” to talk about; but Howie Carr, Dennis and Callahan and the rest will as well.
Although, listening to Howie or Gerry be apoplectic the day after the election will be extraordinarily entertaining.
For more info: “Gov. Patrick opens up lead in 2010 MA Gubernatorial Race” – 4/8/10
“Election 2010: Massachusetts Governor” – Rasmussen Reports – 5/12/10
“Return of Votes for Massachusetts State Election” – Mass.gov (pdf) – 11/7/06